The Transportation industry is a major contributor to greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions. Of particular significance is the fleet of private vehicles powered by internal combustion engines utilizing petroleum-based fuels. The subject project was initiated to develop a computer model and analysis methodology to assess the impact of vehicle fleet electrification on electric power generation and global environmental change. While vehicle electrification will reduce vehicle emissions, the recharging energy will be generated at utility generation sites where emissions will increase as a result. The primary emissions under study for the vehicle fleet were hydrocarbons, CO, CO₂,NO_x, and methane. For the utility generation sites, the primary emissions were NO_x,SO₂, and CO₂.

The Vehicle fleet model is based on the EPA software MOBILE5a and employs Alabama Department of Transportation data as input. MOBILE5a computes all vehicle emissions except CO₂, which is computed by alternate methods developed by other researchers. Electric Vehicle penetration effects on vehicle emissions are computed by linear scaling of the base case emissions. The vehicle fleet model is based on 1994 data, which was the most recent year with full data available.

The electric generating plant emissions can be modeled based on data available from the EPA on the internet. Software was developed to provide coefficients for a simple curve to fit to continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) data. However, due to the unavailability of fuel cost data and the impracticality of full utility operational simulations, quarterly emissions data from the EPA was employed in the case study for the Sate of Alabama.